Sunday, July 28, 2024

the 2024 election

 In 2016, every major newspaper in the country said that Donald Trump was not fit for office. With a lot of help from Russia, WikiLeaks, and James Comey, Trump garnered 306 electoral votes to Hillary’s 232 electoral votes, despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes.

Ironically, the electoral college vote in 2020 was identical – except the 306 electoral votes went to Joe Biden instead of Donald Trump. In 2020, he lost the popular vote by 7,000,000 votes.

In 2020, only SIX major newspapers endorsed Trump for re-election.

In 2024, the New York Times was the first newspaper that proclaimed that Donald Trump is not fit for office,  and other papers inevitably will come to the same conclusion.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/11/opinion/editorials/donald-trump-2024-unfit.html

I am not as smart at Nate Silver, but I predict that Donald Trump and J.D. Vance will lose in November.

In no particular order, here are the reasons for my prediction:

1)    158 presidential historians have rated Trump as the worst president in our nation’s history.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/historians-voted-trump-worst-president-ever/

2)   J.D. Vance is the worst vice presential pick since Sarah Palin in 2008. Among other things, he wants a national abortion ban (with no exception for rape or incest), he has less than two years history as an elected official, he feels that people with children should have more votes than people that don’t have children, he does not like childless cat women (which will not be received well by Taylor Swift fans), and he claims to have had sex with a couch.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/27/metro/trumps-running-mate-thinks-even-less-women-than-he-does/?p1=HP_Feed_Recommended

 

3)   Project 25 and Agenda 47. I have written about both of them in recent weeks, but both of them would have the effect of literally ending our democracy. Although you can order that 900+ page book about Project 2025 on Amazon, you can save yourself a lot of time by watching Joy Reid’s analysis on MSNBC the week of July 29.

4)   According to a poll by conducted by the New York Times and Siena College in April, and early May, immigration was tied with abortion rights as the second-most important issue to voters, behind the economy and inflation. According to the Pew Research Center, 63% of American voters feel that abortion should be legal in most of all cases.

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/

5)   Congressional leaders spent 4 months earlier this year spent 4 months developing a bi-partisan agreement on immigration, but Trump demanded that his parry should vote against it  because it would help Joe Biden. Due to recent execute actions by Biden, the number of migrants illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border has plummeted 40 percent since President Joe Biden clamped down on asylum earlier this month, administration officials said Wednesday.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/26/border-crossings-drop-biden-policy-00165055

Daily crossings have fallen below 2,400. That’s the lowest level since Jan. 17, 2021, right before the president took office. But encounters still remain too high for the president’s newly implemented restrictions to be lifted: Migrants will continue to be barred from seeking asylum in between ports of entry until average border crossings have fallen below 1,500 for seven consecutive days.

6)   Our economy continues to be the strongest in the world.

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/01/bidens-numbers-january-2024-update/

 

7)   Kamala Harris’s newly minted campaign for president announced Sunday morning that it had raised $200 million in less than a week, with two-thirds of that coming from new donors, as the vice president seeks to capitalize on what Democrats see as momentum following the sudden exit from the contest of President Biden. Harris campaign aides said they have recruited 170,000 new volunteers since last Sunday and are holding 2,300 events to mobilize grassroots supporters this week



https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/28/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/ 

8)   Young voter registration spiked to record numbers in the 48 hours since Harris become the nominee. The nonpartisan Vote.org website saw its highest level of new voter registrations of the 2024 election cycle in the first two days after Biden dropped out and endorsed vice president Kamala Harris, with 38,500 people signing up – a 700 percent spike, reported Politico Playbook. Vote.org, the largest get-out-the-vote technology platform in the nation, hopes to register 8 million voters before November's election and reports that 500,000 have already registered this cycle, including a record number of 18-year-old new voters.

Nearly 80 percent of Democratic voters favor the 59-year-old Harris taking over the party's nomination from the 81-year-old Biden, according to a new poll conducted by YouGov for CBS News, and found only 21 percent favored nominating someone else.

9)   Joe Biden is the only president in history to walk on a picket line. He was in Detroit at the same as Donald Trump – but Trump went to a non-union plant. Labor groups have largely united behind Kamala Harris, even though a few are still considering their options.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/kamala-harris-labor-unions-support-presidential-election-2024-rcna163194

 

10) The next presidential debate is still scheduled for September 10, and will be broadcast on ABC.. After Vice President Kamala Harris accused former President Donald Trump of “backpedaling” on a debate, the Trump campaign said Thursday it would not commit to any future debates until the Democratic Party formally chooses a nominee.

President Joe Biden’s decision to step down from the Democratic ticket on Sunday threw previous debate plans into doubt. While the Biden and Trump campaigns had agreed to a debate hosted by ABC on September 10, it is unclear if it will go on as planned.

“I have agreed to the previously agreed upon September 10th debate, he agreed to that previously,” Harris told reporters after landing at Joint Base Andrews Thursday. “Now it appears he’s backpedaling. But I’m ready. And I think that the voters deserve to see the split screen that exists in this race on a debate stage and so, I’m ready. Let’s go.”

If all goes according to plan, the debate will pit a former prosecutor against a convicted felon, and will be a lot more fun to watch than the June 27 debate was.

 

9)   11) Some of the most crucial and largest groups among the Black voter base have cemented their support for Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee this week, mobilizing swiftly through virtual calls and social media to get behind what could be America’s first Black woman president.

On Wednesday, Harris addressed the historically Black Zeta Phi Beta sorority, making her case to thousands of Black women who share an almost 40-year connection with her.

"Our nation needs your leadership once again," Harris, who joined the historically Black Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority in 1986, said during her speech. "In this moment, we face a choice between two different visions for our nation. One focused on the future, and the other focused on the past. With your support, I am fighting for our nation's future."

12)  In the eight years since Hillary Clinton failed to win the American presidency, the work force for the first time grew to include more college-educated women than college-educated men. The #MeToo movement exposed sexual harassment and toppled powerful men. The Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion.

Will any — or all — of it make a difference for Vice President Kamala Harris?

A presidential contest pitting Ms. Harris against former President Donald J. Trump would represent a rematch of sorts: Mr. Trump would again have to run against a woman who held a top administration position and served in the Senate. He defeated Mrs. Clinton in 2016 in spite of her winning the popular vote by a wide margin.

But the dynamics would be unquestionably different. Ms. Harris has neither the political legacy nor the baggage of Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Trump, having served a turbulent term in office, is now a known quantity. Ms. Harris is Black and of South Asian descent. And the country is not the same as it was eight long years ago.

“Women are angrier, and that could be motivating,” said Karen Crowley, 64, an independent voter and retired nurse in Concord, N.H., who would not vote for Mr. Trump, did not feel like she could support Mr. Biden and now planned to back Ms. Harris.

Among the motivations Ms. Crowley cited were the demise of Roe v. Wade and comments and actions by Mr. Trump that many women see as sexist and misogynistic. “A woman president might be more possible now,” she said.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/22/us/kamala-harris-women-voters.html

In July, Nate Silver said that Trump would beat Biden by 4 points.  Now that Biden has dropped out, Kamala Harris is virtually tied with Trump, but the Democratic convention in August will more than likely give her the edge. As a  result, my prediction is that Trump will lose  the popular vote for the third time, but will NOT get enough votes in the electoral college to win the election – and that is good news for all of us.




 

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