Tuesday, August 10, 2021

pay me now, or pay me later

 


In the early 1970’s. the Fram oil filter company produced a series of ads that said, “pay me now, or pay me later”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ij1yDpfZI8Q

The message was simple. If you spend a little money on an oil change and a new filter, you can prevent having to rebuild your engine.

The lesson from those long-ago ads can also be applied to other parts of our lives.

One of those is the plight of homeless people.

The truth is, most of us are actually just a thin line away from being homeless.

The link below is a story about a successful minister in Naperville, Illinois, who lost virtually everything, but somehow managed to survive and prosper:

https://tohell-andback.blogspot.com/2010/10/thin-red-line.html

Homeless people aren’t always dirty, smelly, and disheveled. The story below is about a man I met in Evanston, Illinois, who was one of the most cheerful (and well groomed) person that I have ever met.




https://tohell-andback.blogspot.com/2009/11/have-good-day.html

We’ve all seen people on various street corners with homemade signs asking for help. Even if we never give them money, their existence costs our society money, through homeless shelters, emergency room treatment, and food banks.

Just last weekend, the CDC helped to prevent THOUSANDS of people from becoming homeless by temporarily extending the eviction moratorium that has been in place for more than a yar. Surprisingly, there may be a better way to solve the problem

Ray is a 55-year-old man in Vancouver, Canada. He used to live in an emergency homeless shelter. But over the past couple years, he’s been able to pay for a place to live and courses to prepare him for his dream job — in part because he participated in a study called the New Leaf Project.

The study, conducted by the charity Foundations for Social Change in partnership with the University of British Columbia, was fairly simple. It identified 50 people in the Vancouver area who had become homeless in the past two years. In spring 2018, it gave them each one lump sum of $7,500 (in Canadian dollars). And it told them to do whatever they wanted with the cash. 

“At first, I thought it was a little far-fetched — too good to be true,” Ray said. “I went with one of the program representatives to a bank and we opened up a bank account for me. Even after the money was there, it took me a week for it to sink in.”

Over the next year, the study followed up with the recipients periodically, asking how they were spending the money and what was happening in their lives. Because they were participating in a randomized controlled trial, their outcomes were compared to those of a control group: 65 homeless people who didn’t receive any cash. Both cash recipients and people in the control group got access to workshops and coaching focused on developing life skills and plans.

The results? The people who received cash transfers moved into stable housing faster and saved enough money to maintain financial security over the year of follow-up. They decreased spending on drugs, tobacco, and alcohol by 39 percent on average, and increased spending on food, clothes, and rent, according to self-reports.

“Counter to really harmful stereotypes, we saw that people made wise financial choices,” Claire Williams, the CEO of Foundations for Social Change, told me.

The study, though small, offers a counter to the myths that people who become poor get that way because they’re bad at rational decision-making and self-control, and are thus intrinsically to blame for their situation, and that people getting free money will blow it on frivolous things or addictive substances. Studies have consistently shown that cash transfers don’t increase the consumption of “temptation goods”; they either decrease it or have no effect on it.

“I have been working with people experiencing homelessness as a family physician for 16 years and I am in no way surprised that the people who received this cash used it wisely,” Gary Bloch, a Canadian doctor who prescribes money to low-income patients, told me.

“It should be fairly self-evident by now that providing cash to people who are very low-income will have a positive effect,” he added. “We have seen that in other work (conditional cash transfer programs in Latin America, guaranteed annual income studies in Manitoba), and I would expect a similar outcome here.”

What’s more, according to Foundations for Social Change, giving out the cash transfers in the Vancouver area actually saved the broader society money. Enabling 50 people to move into housing faster saved the shelter system $8,100 per person over the year, for a total savings of $405,000. That’s more than the value of the cash transfers, which means the transfers pay for themselves.

“People think that the status quo is cheap, but it’s actually incredibly expensive,” Williams said. “So why don’t we just give people the cash they need to transform their lives?”

The benefits — and limitations — of giving people free money

Williams developed the idea for the New Leaf Project when her co-founder sent her a link to a 2014 TED talk by the historian Rutger Bregman titled “Why we should give everyone a basic income.” It argued that the most effective way to help people is to simply give them cash.

The general idea behind basic income — that the government should give every citizen a monthly infusion of free money with no strings attached — has gained momentum in the past few years, with several countries running pilot programs to test it.

And the evidence so far shows that getting a basic income tends to boost happinesshealthschool attendance, and trust in social institutions, while reducing crime. Recipients generally spend the money on necessities like food, clothes, and utility bills.

But Williams and her collaborators decided that rather than give people monthly payments, they’d give one big lump sum. “The research shows that if you give people a larger sum of cash up front, it triggers long-term thinking,” as opposed to just keeping people in survival mode, Williams explained. “You can’t think about maybe registering for a course to advance your life when you don’t have enough money to put food on the table. The big lump sum at the front end gives people a lot more agency.”

That’s what it did for Ray. In addition to getting housing, he used the cash transfer to take the courses he needed to become a front-line worker serving people with addictions. “Now I can work in any of the shelters and community centers in the area,” he told me, adding that receiving a cash transfer had felt like a vote of confidence. “It gives the person their own self-esteem, that they were trusted.”

Not everyone was eligible for a cash transfer, however. The study only enrolled participants who’d been homeless for under two years, with the idea that early intervention most effectively reduces the risk of people incurring trauma as a result of living without a home. And people with severe mental health or substance use issues were screened out of the initiative. Williams said this was not out of a belief that there are “deserving poor” and “undeserving poor” — a woefully persistent frame on poverty — but out of a desire to avoid creating a risk of harm and to ensure the highest likelihood of success.

“If there was null effect from people receiving the cash, from an investor perspective it could be seen as a ‘waste of money’ because it didn’t actually demonstrate impact in somebody’s life,” Williams said. “We just wanted to start small, and the idea is that with subsequent iterations we’ll start relaxing those parameters.”

She also said it was a difficult decision to include a control group of people who wouldn’t receive any cash, but ultimately, the control group was deemed necessary to prove impact. “We knew that we needed the rigor, because people would be skeptical about giving people cash. We wanted that evidence base that can assuage some of people’s concerns when they want to see the hard facts,” she told me.

Going forward, Foundations for Social Change is trying to raise $10 million to scale up its cash transfer approach to multiple cities across Canada. It plans to give out 200 cash transfers in the next iteration, which will also be run as a randomized controlled trial. Based on feedback from study participants and a Lived Experience Advisory Panel — a group of people who’ve experienced homelessness — the charity will offer a new array of non-cash supports to both the cash recipients and the control group, including a free smartphone.

The charity also hopes to work with other populations, like people exiting prison and people exiting sex work. To Williams, the time feels ripe.

“I think the pandemic has really softened people’s attitudes to the need for an emergency cash payment when people fall upon hard times,” she said.

Although the study’s findings seem promising, they have not yet undergone peer review. Plus, it’s worth noting that cash on its own probably isn’t enough to end homelessness.

“While I have no problem with providing cash to people who need money, the solution to homelessness is housing,” Bloch told me. “Especially in a city like Vancouver where housing supply is low and rents are astronomical, it will be very hard to sustain a homelessness intervention without offering long-term affordable housing. I would not want to see these findings used to take pressure off the critical need to provide both long-term affordable housing and long-term income security.”

That said, Bloch added, “If this study serves to counteract some people’s perception that people who are homeless and/or low-income can’t be trusted with extra income, that’s great. It’s a myth we need to bury once and for all.”

I know that giving money away can actually cost less than what you are already doing, but the program in Vancouver actually SAVED $8100 per person in the first year of the program.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-canadian-study-gave-7-500-to-homeless-people-here-s-how-they-spent-it/ar-BB1armNt#:~:text=A%20Canadian%20study%20gave%20%247%2C500%20to%20homeless%20people.,used%20to%20live%20in%20an%20emergency%20homeless%20shelter.

 

Now, let’s about sex, and how the same principle applies there.

Colorado has offered free birth control since 2011, leading to: a 40 percent drop in unintended pregnancy, a 42 percent drop in abortions, and millions of dollars in healthcare savings. The program involved long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARC), such as IUD’s, not birth control pills. For every dollar invested in the LARC program, an estimated average of $5.85 was avoided within a three-year period by the Colorado Medicaid program—a good return on investment. The birth rate for Medicaid-eligible women ages 15 to 24 dropped sharply each year between 2010 and 2012. CDPHE estimates that Colorado saved between $49 million and $111 million in birth-related Medicaid costs.

 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/colorado-birth-control-facts/#:~:text=Colorado%20has%20offered%20free%20birth%20control%20for%20five,abortions%2C%20and%20millions%20of%20dollars%20in%20healthcare%20savings.

 

Now that you have absorbed THAT information, it’s time to strap on your helmet, and walk gingerly through a mine field.

It’s surprising how many conservative legislators do not understand the fact that if a woman is NOT pregnant, there will be no need (or desire) to get an abortion.

The number of abortions has decreased virtually every year since 1973, The peak year was 1990, when a Republican (George H.W. Bush) was president. The last time that the number went up was in 2002, when his son (George W. Bush) was president.

 

https://christianliferesources.com/2021/01/19/u-s-abortion-statistics-by-year-1973-current/#:~:text=TOTAL%20ABORTIONS%20SINCE%201973%3A%2062%2C502%2C904%20Based%20on%20numbers,it%20may%20have%20missed%20in%202015-2017%20counts.%20%5B1%2F21%5D

 

Between 2011 and 2016, One hundred and sixty-two abortion clinics closed in the United States, which is reportedly faster than at any other time since the 1973 Supreme Court decision Roe v. Wade.

In data compiled by Bloomberg Businessweek released Wednesday, since 2011, 162 clinics have closed while 21 new ones have opened.

https://www.christianpost.com/news/162-abortion-clinics-close-fastest-rate-since-roe-v-wade-1973.html

Six states (Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, and West Virginia) only have one clinic to serve the entire state.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/29/health/six-states-with-1-abortion-clinic-map-trnd/index.html

As you might expect, the abortion rate is generally higher in “blue” states, but that is not always the case. Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Kansas, New Mexico, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona are all in the “higher than average” category, due  to the fact that the scarcity of clinics means that it is more difficult to obtain contraception and family planning services.

 If a woman cannot get access to reliable family planning and contraceptives, she is MORE likely to either (1) have an increased need/desire for an abortion or (2) require financial assistance (housing, SNAPP benefits and child tax credits). As a society, we would save money if we had MORE family planning clinics, not fewer.

 The most obvious example of the “pay me now or pay me later” creed is infrastructure. Fortunately, Congress managed to pass a bi-partisan infrastructure bill this week, and a larger companion bill may pass in the near future.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/09/infrastructure-vote-senate-budget/

There are more than 617,000 bridges across the United States. Currently, 42% of all bridges are at least 50 years old, and 46,154, or 7.5% of the nation’s bridges, are considered structurally deficient, meaning they are in “poor” condition. Unfortunately, 178 million trips are taken across these structurally deficient bridges every day. In recent years, though, as the average age of America’s bridges increases to 44 years, the number of structurally deficient bridges has continued to decline; however, the rate of improvements has slowed. A recent estimate for the nation’s backlog of bridge repair needs is $125 billion. We need to increase spending on bridge rehabilitation from $14.4 billion annually to $22.7 billion annually, or by 58%, if we are to improve the condition. At the current rate of investment, it will take until 2071 to make all of the repairs that are currently necessary, and the additional deterioration over the next 50 years will become overwhelming. The nation needs a systematic program for bridge preservation like that embraced by many states, whereby existing deterioration is prioritized and the focus is on preventive maintenance.

West Virginia has the highest percentage of structurally deficient bridges, a fact that Joe Manchin needs to pay attention to.

https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/bridges/#:~:text=Overview%20of%20Bridges%20There%20are%20more%20than%20617%2C000,structurally%20deficient%2C%20meaning%20they%20are%20in%20%E2%80%9Cpoor%E2%80%9D%20condition.

Failure to maintain and inspect bridges can have devastating consequences, which you can see in the video below:

 When a Bridge Falls: Disaster in Minneapolis | Retro Report | The New York Times - YouTube

 By now, of course, you have absorbed a lot of information, but the message is still the same.

Pay me now, or pay me later.

 

 

 

 

 


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