Tuesday, March 5, 2019

the banana man


The banana man

When I rode in Iowa’s RAGBRAI bike event nearly 20 years ago, I ran into a guy dressed in a yellow suit riding a yellow recumbent that looked remarkably like a banana. The combination looked a lot like this:





If you’re not a biker, the RAGBRAI is a week-long bicycle tour that crosses Iowa from its western border to the Mississippi River on the east. Once you complete the trek, the tradition is to dip your tire into the Mississippi River to wash off a week’s worth of accumulated dust.

Mr. Pork Chop is always there to supply the needed protein for the journey, and at least 2 weddings have occurred during the running of the event over the years. Since the vast majority of the 20,000 or so riders that attend the event every year sleep in tents in the yards of host families, there HAVE been a number of children who have been conceived during the week long ride. For the sake of simplicity, we will call them “children of the corn”.

If you go back in history a while though, you will discover another “banana man” who has a less than stellar reputation.



Samuel Zemurray was born in Bessarabia, Russia, as Samuel Zmurri and came from a Jewish immigrant family. In 1892 his family moved to the United States and settled in Selina, Alabama. After their arrival, young Samuel worked for an aged pack-peddler who bartered tinware for pigs, earning a dollar a week. In 1899 he went to Mobile, Alabama, to enter the fruit business, buying second-hand bananas in carload lots and disposing of them to nearby dealers. He used a railroad car for his pushcart in his first banana venture, buying about $150 worth of bananas in Mobile and shipping them inland by Railway Express, telegraphing grocers along the route to come to the railroad sidings for ripe bananas. He made about $35 on his first investment.

After a few years, Zemurray moved to New Orleans, Louisiana, where he contracted with the United Fruit Company to sell to small dealers and peddlers bananas which had ripened aboard ship and had to be disposed of quickly. At this time Ashbell Hubbard had the United Fruit Company contract in Mobile, and in 1900 he and Zemurray joined forces, purchased two tramp steamers, and began buying cargoes from independent plantations in Honduras and selling them in Mobile and New Orleans. He and Hubbard borrowed $2,000 and purchased 5,000 acres of plantation land in Honduras in 1910, forming the Cuyamel Fruit Company, of which Zemurray became president. The firm owned their land in the tiny port of Omoa, where Zemurray built railroads over which to move his bananas, as well as shops and a small, screened sanitary town.

Zemurray's operations in Honduras conflicted with the US Secretary of State policy. In those years the US and the Central American republics often reached agreements for the payment of debt to European countries. According to some of these agreements the US Morgan Bank would pay these countries foreign debts, and they would re-pay the Morgan Bank by allowing its agents to sit in the customs houses of both countries (US and the Central American republic) and collect revenues from exports and imports. Zemurray wanted to reach his own agreement on custom taxes with the Honduras Government and side-step with the Morgan Bank, but he was warned by Secretary of State Philander Knox to not continue. Zemurray told Knox that he would continue with his plan regardless of the Morgan Bank and the Secretary of State plans. Knox, thinking that Zemurray had some plan in mind, dispatched Secret Service agents to monitor his activities.

Zemurray contacted two mercenaries, Guy "Machine Gun"Molony and Lee Christmas, plus his friend Manuel Bonilla, a former President of Honduras. The three of them planned a secret operation in Honduras with Zemurray's money. One night they made the Secret Service agents believe that they were going to late night party at a New Orleans brothel. They managed to leave the brothel without notice and took a small boat to a larger ocean yacht. The ship sailed from New Orleans and made its slow voyage to the Honduran coast. Molony and Christmas had brought rifles, ammunition, and a powerful machine-gun, a novelty in those times, with which they swiftly defeated the Honduran resistance. The local government was overthrown after six weeks. After the attack, the Honduras President stepped down, a new election was held, and Bonilla was elected president. Once with Bonilla in power, the Honduras Congress approved a concession that guaranteed Zemurray a large tract of land and waived his obligations to pay taxes for the next 25 years.

For a time Zemurray's business continued to operate and expand up the Honduras coast, out of the way of powerful United Fruit. However, as Cuyamel Fruit grew, the competition between the two companies grew as well. To improve the size and quality of his bananas, Zemurray built a very expensive irrigation system, and in 1922 acquired the Bluefields Fruit and Steamship Company. By 1929 Cuyamel Fruit Company had thirteen steamships running between ports of Honduras and Nicaragua and New Orleans. It also had a sugar plantation and refinery, and in 1929, Cuyamel's stock rose while United Fruit's fell. The two companies went into a fierce price war, until United Fruit decided that the best option was to acquire Cuyamel. In 1930 Zemurray sold Cuyamel to United Fruit for 300,000 shares of the latter's stock, making him United Fruit's largest shareholder. He was also given a seat on the board of directors.

With a fortune of over $30 million, Zemurray went into retirement in New Orleans, but with United Fruit's stock continuing to fall, he could not stay out of business entirely. The company's stock which had been selling for $158 in 1929 was worth only $10 in 1932. Zemurray's fortune had dwindled to two million dollars in shares. At this point Zemurray stormed into to the board of directors meeting. The company had long been a preserve of the Boston elite and Daniel G. Wing, chairman of the First National Bank of Boston, displayed his disdain by replying to Zemurray that he could not understand his Russian accent ("Unfortunately, Mr. Zemurray, I can't understand a word of what you say" -Wing said while smiling thinly). Zemurray was infuriated and quickly and he went out and gathered up proxies, allowing him to take control of the company. He famously remarked: "You gentlemen have been fucking up this business long enough. I'm going to straighten it out." After this, he was elected to the newly created post of managing director in charge of operations. He continued in this post until 1938, when he became president.

Upon taking control of United Fruit, Zemurray made dramatic and drastic changes in the company, firing and replacing many employees, especially in the tropical divisions. The market reacted positively and the company's stock rose. He was now the world's largest grower, shipper, and seller of bananas. A few months after he took office, the Congress of Costa Rica approved a contract with United Fruit that allowed the development of the banana industry along its Pacific coast. This contract included 3,000 acres of land and the construction of railroads, wharves, and other facilities. The project was completed in 1942 and cost nearly $15 million. Zemurray also expanded the company's operations to include the production, transportation, and sale of cacao, and other tropical products. It operated a fleet of steamships called the Great White Fleet, the largest private fleet in the world. The Great White Fleet carried passengers, freight, and mail between the US and the West Indies, Central and South America, Europe, and Africa. At the end of 1940 the company owned 61 ships and chartered 11 more, and a British affiliate owned 23 ships. At the start of the Second World War, the fleets were taken over by the American and British governments. 

By 1946 the company had 83,000 employees and owned 116,214 acres for the cultivation of bananas, 95,755 for sugar cane, and 48,260 for cacao.
Zemurray stepped down as president of United Fruit for a year in 1948 to attend to private business matters, then became president again until his retirement in 1951. In the banana belt of the Caribbean he was first known as "Sam, the Banana Man," and then later as "the fish that swallowed the whale." Zemurray was also widely known in Central America for his philanthropic works. He created the Escuela Agrícola Panamericana in Honduras, which was a higher education institution, financed by United Fruit, that awarded scholarships to Latin American outstanding students willing to study disciplines related to agriculture. The school did not accept United Fruit employees, and was intent on improving agricultural knowledge independent of the company. Zemurray was also behind the projects that protected Maya ruins in lands close to the company's plantations. He established a center for the study of Mayan art and Central American research at Tulane University, and he created the Lancitilla Botanical Gardens in Honduras.He also gave considerable donations in charity in the United States as well. Other achievements were numerous: he gave the gift that permitted the opening of the New Orleans Child Guidance Clinic; he helped to finance the liberal magazine The Nation; and he underwrote a chair in Radcliffe's English Department for women only. Finally, he was also an advisor of the Board of Economic Welfare during World War II, in which he helped develop new sources of hemp, quinine, and rubber.

After Zemurray retired in 1951, he remained as chairman of the executive committee of United Fruit. In that position it has been said that he had an important role in engineering the overthrow of the government of Guatemala in 1954, after the democratically elected President Jacobo Arbenz began expropriating the company's plantations in order to follow his agrarian reform project. Zemurray led a campaign that portrayed  Arbenz as a dangerous Communist in the American media. Working together with an advertisement company he distributed alarmist propaganda among the press and Congressmen in which he showed Guatemala as a foothold of the Soviet Union in the Western Hemisphere. This campaign was eventually successful, since the CIA sponsored a military coup against Arbenz, in which the rebels used United Fruit boats to transport troops and ammunition. The colonel who led the coup, Carlos Castllo, set back Arbenz labor and agrarian reforms and harshly repressed the opposition. In 1961, United Fruit also provided two ships for the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba.

Zemurray married Sarah Weinberger in 1904 and had a daughter and a son. His son was killed during World War II while serving in the Air Force.

Source:
Bibliography: INGHAM, John N. (ed.), Biographical Dictionary of American Business Leaders(Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1983); MCCANN, Thomas, An American Company: The Tragedy of United Fruit (New York: Crown, 1976); SCHLESSINGER, Stephen & Stephen KINZER, Bitter Fruit (New York: Anchor, 1983).
© united fruit historical society, 2001

For a number of years, our CIA was involved in the overthrow of foreign governments  whose goals did not match ours. As a result, our foreign policy actions in Central and South America have produced repercussions that continue to the present day – and a lot of the blame can be attributed to the “banana man”, Samuel Zemurrya, but Elliot Abrams has also had a role. If you have no idea who HE is, the video below will help to explain his role:








Sunday, February 17, 2019

I’m one of those “loser teachers”.







At a rally on February 11 in El Paso, soon-to-be-indicted Donald Trump Jr. drew cheers when he urged young conservatives to “bring it to the school”. “You don’t have to be indoctrinated by those loser teachers that are trying to sell you socialism from birth”.

Fortunately, we won’t have to listen to nonsense from him much longer, since he is on the verge of being indicted by the Mueller investigation. As of a month ago, he was saying goodbye to his friends because he KNOWS that he will be indicted in the very near future.


In view of the fact that his dad is hostile to education in general (why else would he nominate Betsy DeVos to be Secretary of Education?) his comments are not a bit surprising, but they should serve as an ominous warning to the rest of us.


In a stadium filled with people chanting, “USA,USA”, the son of the president called for hostility towards teachers because of their so-called political leanings, which is a message you would expect to hear in an authoritarian regime, not at a rally for a U.S. president. As a matter of fact, we are ALREADY living in a fascist state:


Hostility towards teachers, and also towards journalists , is a world-wide problem.

53 journalists world-wide (including Jamal Khassogi) were killed in 2018

In Germany, the right wing Alternative for Germany party has launched a website where people can report “left wing” teachers.

In the Netherlands, right wing members of the parliament have called on students to “out” their socialist teachers because they were indoctrinating their students in “climate change propaganda”.

In Hungary, textbooks are censored to follow the government’s nationalistic agenda.

In Turkey, president Erdogan has fired thousands of teachers.

In the Philippines, president Duterte is attacking teachers unions.

Due to overcrowded classrooms, lack of professional development, and low salaries, teachers in the United States are striking to demand better teaching and working conditions, and those problems are not limited to this country. Research by the United Nations is predicting a teacher shortage of 69 million teachers by 2030.

As of September, 2016, fully 25% of the teaching jobs in Arizona were not filled, and that statistic has not changed much in the last two years. If you’re a substitute teacher, like me or my son, that’s good news, because you can always get a job if you want one. Even having substitute teachers is only a partial solution, since some schools still are having trouble filling temporary teaching positions. As a result, the Tucson school district recently increased the daily rate for “hard to fill schools” (which is most of them) from $100 a day to $135 a day.

Being a teacher, although it is not an easy job, is actually very rewarding. In addition to the fact that the effective hourly wage is actually a pretty respectable number (close to $30 an hour) , there IS a lot of satisfaction that comes from the fact that you often actually wind up TEACHING students some useful information. In addition, you also LEARN something from the students on a fairly regular basis.

Last spring, the Red for Ed movement FINALLY prodded the Arizona legislature to increase teacher salaries by a meaningful amount – but some of the legislators still do not understand the importance of education in a state where education is still woefully underfunded.

In January of 2019, 2 of the more conservative members of the legislature introduced bills that are designed to restrict teacher’s ability to teach. As a result, the Red for Ed movement is definitely NOT going to go away.


In Donald Jr’s opinion, I’m a loser, and I’m proud of it. There is one thing for certain though, and that is this:

A year from now, I GUARANTEE you that I not be in prison, and that’s a guarantee that HE can’t make.

Bye, bye, Donny.











Sunday, January 27, 2019

are newspapers dead?






One of my favorite editorial cartoonists is a guy named Steve Benson. He became the editorial cartoonist for the Arizona Republican in 1980. He moved to the Tacoma Morning News in 1990, but returned to the Arizona Republic a year later. He won a Pulitzer Prize in 1993, and was nominated for the Pulitzer 4 more times after that.

Here is a sample of his work:




This week, he was laid off.

This week was scary for American media: About 1,000 people were laid off by major outlets, including Buzzfeed and the Huffington Post. Nearly 400 were let go from news giant Gannett alone. 

These people are editors, support staff, and writers—including at least one Pulitzer Prize finalist—who worked to report news stories, check facts, edit, and promote important content getting too little attention. In the age of Trump, this work is absolutely critical. 



In a way, guys like me are to blame for his departure. I read 5 (and sometimes 6) newspapers every day, but I only pay for 2. I pay $15 a month for the digital version of the New York Times, and I also pay more than $20 a month for the Arizona Republic, which gives me online access, as well as deliveries on Wednesday and Sunday. I also read the Washington Post, Al Jazeera, and the Daily Star (Tucson’s home town newspaper) but I don’t pay for any of the views from those sources  – and therein lies the problem.

Total circulation of daily newspapers peaked at 63 million in 1973, and has been going downhill ever since. By 2017, that number had dropped to almost exactly half, to 31 million. The reason for that decline is that more and more of us get our news from electronic sources, like Facebook. The New York Times was one of the first papers to notice the trend, and they started offering “digital only” subscriptions 8  years ago. The nation’ largest newspaper, The Wall Street Journal also started offering online subscriptions a short time later, and the Washington Post joined the movement in 2013.

Going electronic has been a smart move for newspapers, since it has allowed a large INCREASE in circulation. In 2017, the New York Times increased digital subscriptions of 42% over increases in 2016, and the Wall Street Journal experienced gains of 26%.

Newspapers make most of their money from advertising. The peak year for advertising revenue was 2006, when it reached $49,000,000. After that, it took a very steep dive, and by 2017, it had dropped to $16,000,000. Newspapers have made up for some of that lost revenue with digital advertising, since the percentage of advertising revenue from digital sources has risen from 15% in 2011 to 30% in 2017.

Since ad revenue from electronic sources is less than from conventional advertising, newspapers have had to make some very painful cuts. In 2006, the total number of newsroom employees peaked at 74,410. In 2017, that number was 39,210. Benson’s departure from the Arizona Republic happened just a few weeks after a columnist named Linda Chavez stopped appearing in the Opinion section.


Since newspapers seem to be such a losing business, why in the world would Jeff Bezos buy the Washington Post in 2013 for $250 million? Donald Graham, son of legendary publisher Katherine Graham had approached Bezos about buying the newspaper, even though he knew that Bezos knew very little about newspaper publishing. Bezos, however, DID have a mastery of the internet (which is why he is now the world’s wealthiest man).

In his own words, here’s Bezos’ explanation:

“It is the newspaper in the capital city of the most important country in the world. The Washington Post has an incredibly important role to play in this democracy. There’s no doubt in my mind about that.”

Bezos drew his optimism about the paper’s future from one simple fact. The internet destroyed most advantages newspapers had built. But it did offer “one gift: free global distribution.” 

With Bezos's help, The Post developed a new strategy to “take advantage of that gift.” They implemented a new business model. The old model relied on generating a high revenue per reader. Their new focus would forego revenue per reader in favor of acquiring more readers. In other words, a volume play.

Early signs of success indicated the strategy was working. The Washington Post was quick to post profitability and a growing newsroom. In fact, the Washington Post is about the ONLY newspaper that is ADDING to the number of people in the newsroom.


The Arizona Republic is owned by Gannett, the country’s largest newspaper chain. Between 2016 and 2017, the value of its stock decreased by 50%. It is surviving for exactly the same reason that the Washington Post is prospering – it is expanding its audience.


(To the chagrin of a lot of old white guys, the Gannett chain is being run by a 57 year old Jewish girl from New Jersey named Joanne Lipman, and the largest owner of the New York Times is a Mexican telecom entrepreneur named Carlos Slim, who was the world’s richest man from 2010 to 2013).


More than 200 years ago, Thomas Jefferson knew how important that newspapers were to a democracy. Given a choice between a government without newspapers, and newspapers without a government, he would choose the latter.

Not every newspaper can rely on wealthy benefactors like Jeff Bezos, so what can they do to survive and prosper? One idea that would seem to bear merit is one that was introduced by Democratic senator Benjamin Cardin in 2009. It was called the Newspaper Revitalization Act, and it would allow newspapers to become nonprofits if they chose to do so. Cardin’s bill did not pass in 2009, and it’s unlikely that it would get passed during the current administration – but it is still a good idea.


Newspapers play an extremely important role in our society. The Washington Post effectively brought an end to Nixon's presidency, and they will help do it again before 2020. My prediction is that it will happen sometime prior to August 9, the day that Richard Nixon resigned in 1974.

I’m optimistic about the future of newspapers. Their business plans will need to be very different from what they were in the past, but I’ll still be able to read the comics in the Sunday paper for a lot of years to come.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

It’s really just simple math






Too many state governors operate under the assumption that the key to economic growth is to cut taxes – but it is not.


The recession of 2008-2009 was devastating for just about every state. Overall, 50 state tax revenue declined about 12% in that two year time period, but some states did worse. We’re all familiar with the disaster that Sam Brownback brought to Kansas, but Arizona’s relentless tax cutting produced even worst results. By the middle of 2009, tax revenue in Kansas had declined at roughly the save average as the 50 state total (12%), but Arizona’s tax revenue actually declined nearly 20% in the same time period.
In the 12 year time period from 2006 forward, the 50 state increase in revenue is up 9%, Kansas is only up by 2%, and Arizona’s tax revenue growth is exactly ZERO. For those who think that high taxes kill growth, it’s worthwhile to note that Massachusetts, a high tax state, has tax revenues 3% higher than the national average.

The difference between having a robust economy and a lousy one is the state’s investment in education. To a very large degree, states that spend the most on education have the best schools, the highest per capita income, and the lowest percentage of children living in poverty.


The chart below overlays a couple of statistics that prove that education is KEY almost all the time. As always, there will be some exceptions, since New York and Washington D.C spend the most per pupil on students. New York's schools are only average, and the D.C. area has some of the worst schools in the country.


The column below ranks state school systems, from best to worst.

The other columns show other variables. 
H.S. grade rate  per pupil spending  bachelor's degrees low income per cap income  religious
1 Mass 13th 7th 1st - 43.4% 26.70% 61,000 50
2 N.J. 2nd 3rd 3rd - 39.7% 29.40% 60,000 19
3 N.H.  9th 10th 8th - 36.9 % 22.80% 55,000 50
4 Conn. 15th 2nd- $18.958 5th - 38.7 % 29.30% 67,000 47
5 VT 11th 4th - $17,873 7th - 38.3 % 33.00% 48,000 48
6 Minn 34th 17th 9th 28.30% 51,000 35
7 VA 20th 24th 5th - 38.7 % 30.60% 52,000 14
8 WY 38th 6th 37th 34.40% 55,000 22
9 NE 4th 18th 21st 36.40% 48,000 22
10 IA 1st - 91.3% 36th 32nd 32.80% 45,000 19
H.S. grade rate  per pupil spending  adults with bachelors degree % of low income  per cap income 
11 UT 26th WORST - $6953 12th 31.50% 39,000 12
12 MD 12th 12th 3rd - 39.7% 28.80% 56,000 2
13 ND 13th 15th 25th 27.70% 54,000 27
14 PA 21st 9th 23rd 35.40% 49,000 27
15 CO 44th 37th 2nd - 41.% 30.90% 50,000 41
16 WI 9th 2rd 26th 33.90% 46,000 44
17 Wash 39th 21st 11th 32.40% 51,000 44
18 Ind. 19th 33rd 40th 39.80% 41,000 22
19 KS 23rd 31st 14th 38.00% 46,000 19
20 SD 27th 39th 34th 34.60% 45,000 16
H.S. grade rate  per pupil spending  adults with bachelors degree % of low income  per cap income 
21 ME 17th 16th 20th 31.70% 42,000 48
22 Mont 24th 25th 19th 37.80% 41,000 39
23 Ohio 28th 19th 35th 40.00% 43,000 17
24 ILL 25th 13th 13th 36.60% 49,000 33
25 Del 25th 11th 22nd 37.40% 48,000 32
26 NY 37th HIGHEST-$23K 10th 38.90% 58,000 43
27 FL 36th 27th 27th 45.20% 44,000 10
28 NC 22nd 44th 25th 42.50% 41,000 10
29 RI 30th 8th 17th 32.40% 51,000 35
30 MO 6th 29th 30th 40.50% 43,000 15
H.S. grade rate  per pupil spending  adults with bachelors degree % of low income  per cap income 
31 Hawaii 31st 14th 18th 27.10% 48,000 41
32 KY 7th 32nd 45th 42.50% 39,000 13
33 TX 5th 40th 28th 44.40% 47,000 11
34 Idaho 39th 49th 49th 41.50% 38,000 33
35 GA 43rd 35th 25th 43.00% 41,000 8
36 Tenn 8th 43rd 38th 43.90% 42,000 3
37 Oregon 47th 28th 14th 38.10% 43,000 39
38 Mich 39th 20th 30th 40.50% 42,000 27
39 Ark 17th 34th 47th 48.80% 39,000 5
40 CA 29th 22nd 16th 39.50% 53,000 35
H.S. grade rate  per pupil spending  adults with bachelors degree % of low income  per cap income 
41 SC 32nd 30th 35th 46.50% 38,000 6
42 OK 35th 46th 42nd 47.00% 44,000 9
43 WV 3rd- 89.8% 25th lowest - 20.2% 46.30% 37,000 7
44 Alaska 46th 5th 33rd 33.30% 56,000 44
45 AZ 42nd 47th - $7613 29th 44.80% 39,000 27
46 Alabama 16th 38th 42nd 46.20% 39,000 1 - 77%
47 NV 49th 41st 44th 41.60% 42,000 35
48 Miss 33rd 45th 49th 51.20% 35,000 1 - 77%
49 LA 45th 27th 46th 49.30% 44,000 4
50 NM lowest - 71% 36th 39th 52.90% 38,000 18
51 DC 28,000 71,000 27
U.S. 48,000
H.S. grade rate  per pupil spending  adults with bachelors degree % of low income  per cap income 
As a general rule, the states that have the best-funded schools also have the highest per capita income. The states that are miserly when it comes to education have per capita income that is as much as $30,000 less than the most prosperous states. They also have the highest percentage of children living in poverty. Both New Mexico and Mississippi have more than 50% of their children living in poverty.


If your life is feeling like it’s a dead end, the logical response is to ask for help from a higher power, which is why 77% of the population of Alabama and Mississippi consider themselves to be “very religious” – which makes them prey to religious hucksters.


John Oliver produced a show about 3 years ago that gave more insight into the problem:


Finland now has the best public schools in the world, and a large part of the reason is that teaching is a highly regarded profession, and teachers are paid very well.


In contract, too many teachers in America do not get the respect that they deserve. Arizona does not have the lowest average teacher salary, but it is close to the bottom, with an average of $47,456, for a ranking of 47. South Dakota is the worst, with an average of $40,934, and the highest average salary is in New York, which has an average of $77,629, only slightly above the District of Columbia, which has an average of  $75,490.

Since I work as a substitute teacher most days of the week, I see firsthand how hard teachers have to work. Part of that work involves class size, and Arizona has the 2nd highest average number of students per class in the country, at 23.8. Only Nevada is higher.

Due to poor pay, and difficult working conditions, many states have trouble attracting teachers. As of September of 2018, nearly 1 in 4 Arizona teaching positions are not filled. The teacher walkout last spring was a desperate attempt by the teachers to recover some of $1 billion that state had cut from education in the last decade, and they succeeded – at least to a degree.


There is a very old saying that if you want to get water out of that well, you need to prime the pump. By the same token, if you want GREAT economic growth in your state, you first have to “prime the pump” – by investing in education.















Tuesday, January 1, 2019

I want to be a rock star




“I want to be a rock star” is the fifth U.S. single by the Canadian rock band Nickelback from their fifth album, All the Right Reasons (2005). It is the band’s most popular single, and was at the top of the charts in both the U.K. and the United States. It has sold 4.5 million copies in America. Listening to it always makes me smile:


In 2012, Nickelback released their 7th studio album. “Lullaby” was the 4th single on the album. Every time I watch it, I actually get tears in my eyes. It depicts a young couple rushing to the maternity ward for the birth of their first child. 

His wife/girlfriend dies during delivery. 

After leaving the hospital, alone with his child,the father briefly considers giving up his new son for adoption, but quickly decides against it because he had already fallen in love with the little guy.


If you do a little digging, you’ll discover that the video actually says a LOT about our society, and the Washington Post article posted below goes into a lot more detail:


Here’s the short version:

In 2017, the United States saw the fewest babies born in 30 years, which should be a cause for concern, and the experience of Japan explains why.

In 2018, Japanese women gave birth to 921,000 babies – the lowest number since comparable records were first kept in 1899. Meanwhile, the number of deaths in Japan hit their highest level in nearly a century.

Why does this matter? Well, it’s hard for an economy to grow with fewer workers. As more people age out of the workforce, a swelling number of retirees must depend on a shrinking number of working people to power the economy. The tax base required to fund public services for those retirees — including health care and elder care — also shrinks. As a result, Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is now 253%.


America’s debt to GDP ratio is 105.4%. Countries that have limited social programs, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, have very low debt to GDP ratios. 

In 1980, when Japan had the 2nd fastest growing economy in the world (behind the United States), its debt to GDP ratio was only 50.6%. Japan’s economy was surpassed by China in 1990, and in the year 2000, China had overtaken the United States in incremental growth in its economy. Japan’s economic growth is now less than the growth rate in China, the United States, India, the United Kingdom, Russian, and Germany.


One of the reasons for Japan’s shrinking population is that the average age in Japan has been rising, reducing the number of child-bearing women, and the fertility rate of women who ARE still of child-bearing age has been declining.

Another reason for the decline is that the Japanese marriage rates have also fallen. Unlike America, however, the number of births to unmarried women is only 2%, considerably lower than the overall 40% rate experienced in America.  The rate also varies considerably by ethnicity. 72% of the births of African-American women in America are to single women, and 49% of the births to Hispanic births are to single mothers, Both of those figures contrast sharply with the experience of Asian women, who have an unmarried birth rate of only 10.9%.

There are 2 solutions for Japan’s problems, both of us also apply to the United States: (1) make it easer to have children, via better child care and family leave programs, and (2) an increase in the number of immigrants. Neither one will happen in America until we have more responsible leaders.

To quote Megan McArdle, of the Washington Post, "Like any other asset, this one (people) needs to be replenished by continual reinvestment. A society that stops replacing itself is like a trust-fund kid dipping into the capital. The accounts empty at an accelerating pace, and a bill eventually comes due that cannot be paid.


https://tucson.com/opinion/national/megan-mcardle-can-immigration-save-the-u-s-from-its/article_90103973-0f6a-5f75-a717-db712828ad56.html

The “Lullaby” video also suggests a society that is much more forgiving that it was in 1960, when only 5% of our overall births was to unwed mothers, and it has risen in nearly every year since that time.


The reduced stigma of unwed motherhood has also led to a steady decline in the number of abortions in America, and it is now at its lowest level since the passage of Roe v. Wade in 1973. It peaked when Ronald Reagan was president, and declined every year until 2006, when George W. Bush was president.


Another topic that the video touched on, very briefly, was the maternal death rate. It wasn't until I watched the video for the 3rd time that I realized that the mother (and not the baby) had died in the delivery room - and that also says a lot about our society.
America has the highest maternal death rate of ANY developed nation, and the rate is going up. The solution, of course, is more funding from the Federal government, which
could fund programs like California's Maternal Mortality Review Board, which reduced maternal mortality by 50% in its first decade of operation. Sadly, though, increased funding for better maternal health is not a priority for the current administration.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/05/10/maternal-deaths-mothers-mortality-column/595818002/

Music has always been a reflection of our society, frequently to the chagrin of the older generation, but a song like “Lullaby” (in 3 minutes and 45 seconds) can make all of us feel better about our future.