It’s no secret
that food prices have gone up in the last year, and it also is no secret WHY
they went up.
Here is a quick summary:
Overall
food prices in the United States are up about 3.8% in mid-2026 compared to last
year, driven by rising
transportation costs, weather impacts, and tight beef supplies.
Price
Trends
- Groceries (Food-at-Home): Up roughly 2.9% to 3.0% over the past year.
- Restaurants
(Food-Away-from-Home): Up about 3.4% to 3.6% compared
to last year, continuing to outpace grocery inflation.
- Overall Forecast: Overall, full-year food price inflation will be around 3% to 3.4%.
Hardest-Hit Items
- Beef and Veal: Prices remain high due to historic lows in U.S. cattle herds
combined with strong demand.
- Sugar and Sweets: Projected to see some of the highest increases at over 6%.
- Beverages: Non-alcoholic drinks and coffee face steeper price tags due to
global weather challenges and supply pressures.
- Produce: Specific fruits and vegetables are seeing localized jumps tied to
weather extremes and transit costs.
- One source projects full-year food price inflation to land around 3% to 3.4%.
Driving
Factors
Fuel
and Energy: Spikes in regional fuel costs have made shipping and logistics more
expensive.
- Labor Costs: Higher wages and ongoing labor shortages in farming and processing add to retail costs.
The
national average for regular gasoline sits at $4.09 per gallon, up
significantly from the start of the year due to geopolitical tensions and
disruptions.
Key
Price Changes in 2026
- Spring Peak: Prices surged in the spring, peaking at $4.56 per gallon on
May 21 following conflicts in the Middle East and tightening crude oil
supplies.
- Summer Trend: After a brief dip in early summer, prices rebounded and stayed
above $4.00 per gallon through August for the first time on record.
- Overall Increase: Prices remain up roughly 35% to 45% compared to the start of the year, driven by crude oil holding in the $80 to $90 per barrel range.
Labor shortages
were caused by stricter enforcement of laws by the Department of Homeland Security.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is currently averaging about 2,000 arrests per day.
Current
Arrest Numbers
- Daily Average: Federal immigration officials recently doubled their pace to hit a
target of roughly 2,000 arrests per day.
- Recent Totals: Reports show that ICE detained more than 10,000 people over a
single five-day period.
- July Trends: Before this latest surge, ICE averaged over 1,580 daily arrests in July, which included a high rate of individuals without criminal records.
- Recent Operations:
- Operation Safe Community: A recent two-week sweep in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., led by the Department of Homeland Security resulted in 1,328 arrests.
- Criminal vs. Non-Criminal: DHS reported that nearly 400 of the individuals arrested in the
D.C. regional sweep had prior criminal charges or convictions. However, national data indicates
that a large portion of overall detainees across the country do not have a
criminal record.
Enforcement
Goals
White House Targets: The administration established a daily arrest
target floor of 1,800 to 2,000 enforcement actions.
Independent Operations: ICE is largely
conducting these operations independently with increased street personnel
rather than relying heavily on joint task
Over the course of
the first 7 months of the year, we averaged slightly more than $600 a month on
groceries, which seems like a lot just for 2 people.
Our household
income, even with a retired wife, is high enough that we can afford to pay that
amount of money for food – but there are a LOT of people who can’t, so they
need to rely on public assistance for their food.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps) is the nation’s most important
anti-hunger program, reaching some 41 million people nationwide in 2024. These
fact sheets provide state-by-state data on who participates in the SNAP
program, the benefits they receive, and SNAP’s role in strengthening the
economy.
The link shown above shows how the benefits
vary by state.
Here are the facts for Arizona:
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps) is the nation’s most important
anti-hunger program, reaching some 41 million people nationwide in 2024. These
fact sheets provide state-by-state data on who participates in the SNAP
program, the benefits they receive, and SNAP’s role in strengthening the
economy.
Whom Does SNAP Reach?
In
federal fiscal year 2024, it helped:
- 923,400 Arizona residents, or 12% of the
state population (1 in 8)
- 41,697,500 participants in the United States, or 12% of the
total population (1 in 8)
Arizona
more than 68% of
SNAP participants are in families with children
almost 29% are
in families with members who are older adults or are disabled
more than 40% are
in working families
Nationally
more than 62% of
SNAP participants are in families with children
more than 37% are
in families with members who are older adults or are disabled
more than 38% are
in working families
Source: CBPP analysis of data from USDA Food and
Nutrition Service
Most SNAP Participants in Arizona Have
Incomes Below the Poverty Line
Share of participants by household income, fiscal year
2022
Many Arizona households
struggle to put food on the table. The most recent data show in 2023:
- 11.8% of
households were “food insecure,” meaning that their access to adequate
food is limited by a lack of money and other resources
The U.S.
Department of Agriculture estimates that in a weak economy, $1 in SNAP benefits
generates $1.50 in economic activity. Households receive SNAP benefits on
electronic benefit transfer cards, which can be used only to purchase food at
one of about 261,400 authorized
retail locations around the country, including some 4,600 in Arizona.
Notes: In addition to SNAP, in FY 2024 an average of about 5,000 individuals in Arizona received benefits through
the Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations (FDPIR), which is a
federal program that provides commodity foods to low-income households,
including the elderly, living on Indian reservations, and to Native American
families residing in designated areas near reservations and in the State of
Oklahoma.
If my wife and I were eligible for SNAP
benefits, we would receive a monthly benefit of $376, roughly half what we currently
spend. The benefits for each of us would be slightly less than $6 day, which
would be enough to buy a Big Mac, if your skipped the fries and a drink.
Unlike tax cuts. SNAP benefits provide
the biggest “bang for the bucket”, which I detailed in the article below:
https://tohell-andback.blogspot.com/2013/05/food-for-thought.html
Although today’s Republic party has not
been generous with benefits, the program actually started during the Nixon
administration.
The Nixon administration also passed the Clean Air Act of 1970, the Clean Water Act of
1970, established the Environmental Protection Agency, and passed OSHA. From
1970 to 1975, spending on human resource programs exceeded spending for defense
for the first time since the Second World War.
Sadly, the people who rely on SNAP
benefits are going to see their lived get much harder, largely due to the actions
of the people in Congress.
In July of 2025, congress passed The One
Big Beautiful Bill act, which is definitely a misnomer, since there is anything
beautiful about it.
Like all laws the are good parts, bad parts, and ugly parts, and the link
listed blow goes into detail on all of those:
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/one-big-beautiful-bill-pros-cons/
The
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) cuts federal funding for the
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by $186 billion to $187
billion over 10 years. This
represents an approximate 20% decrease in total funding, making it the
largest reduction in the history of the program. [1,
2]
Data from organizations like the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) shows that between the bill's passage in July 2025 and mid-2026, SNAP participation fell nationwide by about 12%, resulting in around 5 million people losing their benefits.
The
primary policy mechanisms causing these reductions include:
- Expanded Work Requirements: The age limit for able-bodied adults without dependents required to
work at least 80 hours per month to keep benefits was raised from 54 to
64 years old. Stricter 20-hour-per-week work rules were also
introduced for parents whose youngest dependent child is 14 or older.
- Reduced Benefit Sizes: Individual benefit adequacy is reduced by restrictions placed on future cost adjustments to the Thrifty Food Plan (the model used to calculate SNAP allotments). The average recipient is projected to lose about $286 per year by 2034 relative to rising food costs.
- Cost Shifting to States: The law requires states to assume a higher share of administrative costs (increasing from 50% to 75%) and forces states to pay up to 15% of direct benefit costs based on their administrative "payment error rates," leading many states to tighten local eligibility rules.
- Exemption Eliminations: Automatic work-requirement exemptions were removed for veterans,
unhoused individuals, and youth aging out of foster care.
Congress passed the largely along party lines in early July 2025.
Senate
Vote
- Date: July 1, 2025
- Vote: 51–50
- Details: Vice President J.D. Vance cast
the tie-breaking vote. Three Republicans voted against the bill alongside the unified Democratic
caucus.
House
Vote
- Date: July 3, 2025
- Vote: 218–214
- Details: The House recorded the final
passage. Two Republicans (Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick
of Pennsylvania) voted with all voting Democrats against the measure.
President Donald
Trump signed the reconciliation package into law on July 4, 2025.
Due to the fact that many of the
provisions in the bill are unpopular, some of the changes to not become effective
until January of 2027, which conveniently is AFTER the 2026 midterms.
The
national debt of the United States is the total amount of money borrowed by the
federal government over time to cover budget shortfalls, which recently
surpassed $40 trillion.
Key
Facts
- Total Amount: Gross U.S. debt officially topped $40 trillion in August 2026
according to reports.
- Per Person Share: This total equals roughly $116,800 for every individual living in
the U.S.
- Causes: The government spends more money on public programs and services than it collects in taxes, creating a yearly deficit. Borrowing to pay for these shortfalls drives up the total debt.
- Types of Debt: It includes debt held by the public (investors, foreign governments, the Federal Reserve) and intragovernmental debt (money owed to federal accounts like trust funds).
- Interest Costs: Servicing the interest on this accumulated debt now costs over a trillion dollars annually.
The other reason why it is necessary to
repeal the OBBB is “the elephant in the room”, which is the war in Iran.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/fact-sheet-costs-of-the-trump-administrations-war-in-iran/
·
According to the
Department of Defense (DOD), 14 American
service members have been killed and at least another 414 were
wounded in the war as of July 14.
·
The DOD has neither
provided adequate estimates of the costs of operations to date nor has provided
enough clarity and detail around the nature of operations to allow for precise
independent accounting. Nevertheless, reliable, independent estimates from the
Center for Strategic and International Studies place the total costs at
between $34 billion and
$42 billion as of June 23, accounting for the costs of
personnel deployments, munitions, equipment loss and damage, fuel, security,
and other costs. Other estimates, which assume a broader range of costs and
higher burn rate for munitions, suggest the cost of Operation Epic Fury could have reached more than $100
billion by late June.
·
None of this
necessitates immediate supplemental funding. The best course of action for
Congress is to provide additional general transfer authority for the current
fiscal year and to ensure the DOD budget for the coming year reflects actual
needs.
o
The DOD has already
requested $114 billion in its FY 2027 appropriations request to replenish
critical, high-demand munitions stockpiles—nearly five times the enacted funds
for these munitions for FY 2026—as well as an additional $60 billion for other
munitions development and procurement.
o
Congress should work
with the DOD to ensure that the FY 2027 budget includes appropriate funding for
the necessary magazine depth rather than seek to provide any additional funding
through supplemental assistance.
Domestic economic costs
·
Prices for fuel remain
higher than before the Trump administration’s attacks on Iran. As of July 14,
Americans had paid more than $68 billion in extra costs for gas and diesel
since the Iran war began, according to the Brown University Iran War Energy Cost Tracker.
That amounts to more than $500 per household in higher costs.
·
Gas and diesel prices
are about 30 percent higher than before the war. The national average price for
regular gasoline was $3.86 per gallon as of July 14, compared with $2.98 on
February 27, according to AAA.
o
As of July 14, nine
states (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Oregon,
Washington) and Washington, D.C., had regular gas
prices above $4 per gallon. The states with the highest
percentage increases (40 percent or more) relative to prices before the war were
Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.
o
Our country is facing numerous challenges right now, and there is little
than any of us can do to fix those problems – exempt for one VERY important
tool, and that is to VOTE
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