are newspapers dead?

One of my favorite editorial cartoonists is a guy named Steve Benson. He became the editorial cartoonist for the Arizona Republican in 1980. He moved to the Tacoma Morning News in 1990, but returned to the Arizona Republic a year later. He won a Pulitzer Prize in 1993, and was nominated for the Pulitzer 4 more times after that.

Here is a sample of his work:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Benson_(cartoonist)

This week, he was laid off.

This week was scary for American media: About 1,000 people were laid off by major outlets, including Buzzfeed and the Huffington Post. Nearly 400 were let go from news giant Gannett alone. 

These people are editors, support staff, and writers—including at least one Pulitzer Prize finalist—who worked to report news stories, check facts, edit, and promote important content getting too little attention. In the age of Trump, this work is absolutely critical. 

In a way, guys like me are to blame for his departure. I read 5 (and sometimes 6) newspapers every day, but I only pay for 2. I pay $15 a month for the digital version of the New York Times, and I also pay more than $20 a month for the Arizona Republic, which gives me online access, as well as deliveries on Wednesday and Sunday. I also read the Washington Post, Al Jazeera, and the Daily Star (Tucson’s home town newspaper) but I don’t pay for any of the views from those sources  – and therein lies the problem.

Total circulation of daily newspapers peaked at 63 million in 1973, and has been going downhill ever since. By 2017, that number had dropped to almost exactly half, to 31 million. The reason for that decline is that more and more of us get our news from electronic sources, like Facebook. The New York Times was one of the first papers to notice the trend, and they started offering “digital only” subscriptions 8  years ago. The nation’ largest newspaper, The Wall Street Journal also started offering online subscriptions a short time later, and the Washington Post joined the movement in 2013.

Going electronic has been a smart move for newspapers, since it has allowed a large INCREASE in circulation. In 2017, the New York Times increased digital subscriptions of 42% over increases in 2016, and the Wall Street Journal experienced gains of 26%.

Newspapers make most of their money from advertising. The peak year for advertising revenue was 2006, when it reached $49,000,000. After that, it took a very steep dive, and by 2017, it had dropped to $16,000,000. Newspapers have made up for some of that lost revenue with digital advertising, since the percentage of advertising revenue from digital sources has risen from 15% in 2011 to 30% in 2017.

Since ad revenue from electronic sources is less than from conventional advertising, newspapers have had to make some very painful cuts. In 2006, the total number of newsroom employees peaked at 74,410. In 2017, that number was 39,210. Benson’s departure from the Arizona Republic happened just a few weeks after a columnist named Linda Chavez stopped appearing in the Opinion section.

http://www.journalism.org/fact-sheet/newspapers/

Since newspapers seem to be such a losing business, why in the world would Jeff Bezos buy the Washington Post in 2013 for $250 million? Donald Graham, son of legendary publisher Katherine Graham had approached Bezos about buying the newspaper, even though he knew that Bezos knew very little about newspaper publishing. Bezos, however, DID have a mastery of the internet (which is why he is now the world’s wealthiest man).

In his own words, here’s Bezos’ explanation:

“It is the newspaper in the capital city of the most important country in the world. The Washington Post has an incredibly important role to play in this democracy. There’s no doubt in my mind about that.”

Bezos drew his optimism about the paper’s future from one simple fact. The internet destroyed most advantages newspapers had built. But it did offer “one gift: free global distribution.” 

With Bezos's help, The Post developed a new strategy to “take advantage of that gift.” They implemented a new business model. The old model relied on generating a high revenue per reader. Their new focus would forego revenue per reader in favor of acquiring more readers. In other words, a volume play.

Early signs of success indicated the strategy was working. The Washington Post was quick to post profitability and a growing newsroom. In fact, the Washington Post is about the ONLY newspaper that is ADDING to the number of people in the newsroom.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniedenning/2018/09/19/why-jeff-bezos-bought-the-washington-post/#12b428e33aab

The Arizona Republic is owned by Gannett, the country’s largest newspaper chain. Between 2016 and 2017, the value of its stock decreased by 50%. It is surviving for exactly the same reason that the Washington Post is prospering – it is expanding its audience.

https://www.cjr.org/local_news/gannett-usa-today-joanne-lipman.php

(To the chagrin of a lot of old white guys, the Gannett chain is being run by a 57 year old Jewish girl from New Jersey named Joanne Lipman, and the largest owner of the New York Times is a Mexican telecom entrepreneur named Carlos Slim, who was the world’s richest man from 2010 to 2013).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanne_Lipman

More than 200 years ago, Thomas Jefferson knew how important that newspapers were to a democracy. Given a choice between a government without newspapers, and newspapers without a government, he would choose the latter.

Not every newspaper can rely on wealthy benefactors like Jeff Bezos, so what can they do to survive and prosper? One idea that would seem to bear merit is one that was introduced by Democratic senator Benjamin Cardin in 2009. It was called the Newspaper Revitalization Act, and it would allow newspapers to become nonprofits if they chose to do so. Cardin’s bill did not pass in 2009, and it’s unlikely that it would get passed during the current administration – but it is still a good idea.

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2009/05/04/with-no-newspapers-as-thomas-jefferson-knew-democracy-suffers

Newspapers play an extremely important role in our society. The Washington Post effectively brought an end to Nixon's presidency, and they will help do it again before 2020. My prediction is that it will happen sometime prior to August 9, the day that Richard Nixon resigned in 1974.

I’m optimistic about the future of newspapers. Their business plans will need to be very different from what they were in the past, but I’ll still be able to read the comics in the Sunday paper for a lot of years to come.

It’s really just simple math

Too many state governors operate under the assumption that the key to economic growth is to cut taxes – but it is not.

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/data-visualizations/2014/fiscal-50#ind0

The recession of 2008-2009 was devastating for just about every state. Overall, 50 state tax revenue declined about 12% in that two year time period, but some states did worse. We’re all familiar with the disaster that Sam Brownback brought to Kansas, but Arizona’s relentless tax cutting produced even worst results. By the middle of 2009, tax revenue in Kansas had declined at roughly the save average as the 50 state total (12%), but Arizona’s tax revenue actually declined nearly 20% in the same time period.

In the 12 year time period from 2006 forward, the 50 state increase in revenue is up 9%, Kansas is only up by 2%, and Arizona’s tax revenue growth is exactly ZERO. For those who think that high taxes kill growth, it’s worthwhile to note that Massachusetts, a high tax state, has tax revenues 3% higher than the national average.

The difference between having a robust economy and a lousy one is the state’s investment in education. To a very large degree, states that spend the most on education have the best schools, the highest per capita income, and the lowest percentage of children living in poverty.

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2019/01/08/states-with-the-best-and-worst-schools-8/2/

The chart below overlays a couple of statistics that prove that education is KEY almost all the time. As always, there will be some exceptions, since New York and Washington D.C spend the most per pupil on students. New York's schools are only average, and the D.C. area has some of the worst schools in the country.

The column below ranks state school systems, from best to worst. The other columns show other variables.
		H.S. grade rate	per pupil spending	bachelor's degrees	low income	per cap income	religious
1	Mass	13th	7th	1st - 43.4%	26.70%	61,000	50
2	N.J.	2nd	3rd	3rd - 39.7%	29.40%	60,000	19
3	N.H.	9th	10th	8th - 36.9 %	22.80%	55,000	50
4	Conn.	15th	2nd- $18.958	5th - 38.7 %	29.30%	67,000	47
5	VT	11th	4th - $17,873	7th - 38.3 %	33.00%	48,000	48
6	Minn	34th	17th	9th	28.30%	51,000	35
7	VA	20th	24th	5th - 38.7 %	30.60%	52,000	14
8	WY	38th	6th	37th	34.40%	55,000	22
9	NE	4th	18th	21st	36.40%	48,000	22
10	IA	1st - 91.3%	36th	32nd	32.80%	45,000	19
		H.S. grade rate	per pupil spending	adults with bachelors degree	% of low income	per cap income
11	UT	26th	WORST - $6953	12th	31.50%	39,000	12
12	MD	12th	12th	3rd - 39.7%	28.80%	56,000	2
13	ND	13th	15th	25th	27.70%	54,000	27
14	PA	21st	9th	23rd	35.40%	49,000	27
15	CO	44th	37th	2nd - 41.%	30.90%	50,000	41
16	WI	9th	2rd	26th	33.90%	46,000	44
17	Wash	39th	21st	11th	32.40%	51,000	44
18	Ind.	19th	33rd	40th	39.80%	41,000	22
19	KS	23rd	31st	14th	38.00%	46,000	19
20	SD	27th	39th	34th	34.60%	45,000	16
		H.S. grade rate	per pupil spending	adults with bachelors degree	% of low income	per cap income
21	ME	17th	16th	20th	31.70%	42,000	48
22	Mont	24th	25th	19th	37.80%	41,000	39
23	Ohio	28th	19th	35th	40.00%	43,000	17
24	ILL	25th	13th	13th	36.60%	49,000	33
25	Del	25th	11th	22nd	37.40%	48,000	32
26	NY	37th	HIGHEST-$23K	10th	38.90%	58,000	43
27	FL	36th	27th	27th	45.20%	44,000	10
28	NC	22nd	44th	25th	42.50%	41,000	10
29	RI	30th	8th	17th	32.40%	51,000	35
30	MO	6th	29th	30th	40.50%	43,000	15
		H.S. grade rate	per pupil spending	adults with bachelors degree	% of low income	per cap income
31	Hawaii	31st	14th	18th	27.10%	48,000	41
32	KY	7th	32nd	45th	42.50%	39,000	13
33	TX	5th	40th	28th	44.40%	47,000	11
34	Idaho	39th	49th	49th	41.50%	38,000	33
35	GA	43rd	35th	25th	43.00%	41,000	8
36	Tenn	8th	43rd	38th	43.90%	42,000	3
37	Oregon	47th	28th	14th	38.10%	43,000	39
38	Mich	39th	20th	30th	40.50%	42,000	27
39	Ark	17th	34th	47th	48.80%	39,000	5
40	CA	29th	22nd	16th	39.50%	53,000	35
		H.S. grade rate	per pupil spending	adults with bachelors degree	% of low income	per cap income
41	SC	32nd	30th	35th	46.50%	38,000	6
42	OK	35th	46th	42nd	47.00%	44,000	9
43	WV	3rd- 89.8%	25th	lowest - 20.2%	46.30%	37,000	7
44	Alaska	46th	5th	33rd	33.30%	56,000	44
45	AZ	42nd	47th - $7613	29th	44.80%	39,000	27
46	Alabama	16th	38th	42nd	46.20%	39,000	1 - 77%
47	NV	49th	41st	44th	41.60%	42,000	35
48	Miss	33rd	45th	49th	51.20%	35,000	1 - 77%
49	LA	45th	27th	46th	49.30%	44,000	4
50	NM	lowest - 71%	36th	39th	52.90%	38,000	18
51	DC		28,000			71,000	27
	U.S.					48,000
		H.S. grade rate	per pupil spending	adults with bachelors degree	% of low income	per cap income

As a general rule, the states that have the best-funded schools also have the highest per capita income. The states that are miserly when it comes to education have per capita income that is as much as $30,000 less than the most prosperous states. They also have the highest percentage of children living in poverty. Both New Mexico and Mississippi have more than 50% of their children living in poverty.

https://www.infoplease.com/business-finance/poverty-and-income/capita-personal-income-state

If your life is feeling like it’s a dead end, the logical response is to ask for help from a higher power, which is why 77% of the population of Alabama and Mississippi consider themselves to be “very religious” – which makes them prey to religious hucksters.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/29/how-religious-is-your-state/?state=alabama

John Oliver produced a show about 3 years ago that gave more insight into the problem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y1xJAVZxXg&t=194s

Finland now has the best public schools in the world, and a large part of the reason is that teaching is a highly regarded profession, and teachers are paid very well.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/11-best-school-systems-in-the-world-a7425391.html

In contract, too many teachers in America do not get the respect that they deserve. Arizona does not have the lowest average teacher salary, but it is close to the bottom, with an average of $47,456, for a ranking of 47. South Dakota is the worst, with an average of $40,934, and the highest average salary is in New York, which has an average of $77,629, only slightly above the District of Columbia, which has an average of  $75,490.

Since I work as a substitute teacher most days of the week, I see firsthand how hard teachers have to work. Part of that work involves class size, and Arizona has the 2^nd highest average number of students per class in the country, at 23.8. Only Nevada is higher.

Due to poor pay, and difficult working conditions, many states have trouble attracting teachers. As of September of 2018, nearly 1 in 4 Arizona teaching positions are not filled. The teacher walkout last spring was a desperate attempt by the teachers to recover some of $1 billion that state had cut from education in the last decade, and they succeeded – at least to a degree.

http://time.com/money/5287489/average-teacher-salary-by-state/

There is a very old saying that if you want to get water out of that well, you need to prime the pump. By the same token, if you want GREAT economic growth in your state, you first have to “prime the pump” – by investing in education.

I want to be a rock star

“I want to be a rock star” is the fifth U.S. single by the Canadian rock band Nickelback from their fifth album, All the Right Reasons (2005). It is the band’s most popular single, and was at the top of the charts in both the U.K. and the United States. It has sold 4.5 million copies in America. Listening to it always makes me smile:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmeUuoxyt_E

In 2012, Nickelback released their 7^th studio album. “Lullaby” was the 4^th single on the album. Every time I watch it, I actually get tears in my eyes. It depicts a young couple rushing to the maternity ward for the birth of their first child. 

His wife/girlfriend dies during delivery. 

After leaving the hospital, alone with his child,the father briefly considers giving up his new son for adoption, but quickly decides against it because he had already fallen in love with the little guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OjiOn5s8s8

If you do a little digging, you’ll discover that the video actually says a LOT about our society, and the Washington Post article posted below goes into a lot more detail:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/can-the-us-avoid-japans-demographic-disaster/2018/12/31/1f29ba66-0d3f-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?utm_term=.ebf710e90e67

Here’s the short version:

In 2017, the United States saw the fewest babies born in 30 years, which should be a cause for concern, and the experience of Japan explains why.

In 2018, Japanese women gave birth to 921,000 babies – the lowest number since comparable records were first kept in 1899. Meanwhile, the number of deaths in Japan hit their highest level in nearly a century.

Why does this matter? Well, it’s hard for an economy to grow with fewer workers. As more people age out of the workforce, a swelling number of retirees must depend on a shrinking number of working people to power the economy. The tax base required to fund public services for those retirees — including health care and elder care — also shrinks. As a result, Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is now 253%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp

America’s debt to GDP ratio is 105.4%. Countries that have limited social programs, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, have very low debt to GDP ratios. 

In 1980, when Japan had the 2^nd fastest growing economy in the world (behind the United States), its debt to GDP ratio was only 50.6%. Japan’s economy was surpassed by China in 1990, and in the year 2000, China had overtaken the United States in incremental growth in its economy. Japan’s economic growth is now less than the growth rate in China, the United States, India, the United Kingdom, Russian, and Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_growth_1980%E2%80%932010

One of the reasons for Japan’s shrinking population is that the average age in Japan has been rising, reducing the number of child-bearing women, and the fertility rate of women who ARE still of child-bearing age has been declining.

Another reason for the decline is that the Japanese marriage rates have also fallen. Unlike America, however, the number of births to unmarried women is only 2%, considerably lower than the overall 40% rate experienced in America.  The rate also varies considerably by ethnicity. 72% of the births of African-American women in America are to single women, and 49% of the births to Hispanic births are to single mothers, Both of those figures contrast sharply with the experience of Asian women, who have an unmarried birth rate of only 10.9%.

There are 2 solutions for Japan’s problems, both of us also apply to the United States: (1) make it easer to have children, via better child care and family leave programs, and (2) an increase in the number of immigrants. Neither one will happen in America until we have more responsible leaders.

To quote Megan McArdle, of the Washington Post, "Like any other asset, this one (people) needs to be replenished by continual reinvestment. A society that stops replacing itself is like a trust-fund kid dipping into the capital. The accounts empty at an accelerating pace, and a bill eventually comes due that cannot be paid.


https://tucson.com/opinion/national/megan-mcardle-can-immigration-save-the-u-s-from-its/article_90103973-0f6a-5f75-a717-db712828ad56.html

The “Lullaby” video also suggests a society that is much more forgiving that it was in 1960, when only 5% of our overall births was to unwed mothers, and it has risen in nearly every year since that time.

 https://www.childtrends.org/indicators/births-to-unmarried-women

The reduced stigma of unwed motherhood has also led to a steady decline in the number of abortions in America, and it is now at its lowest level since the passage of Roe v. Wade in 1973. It peaked when Ronald Reagan was president, and declined every year until 2006, when George W. Bush was president.

https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2014/us-abortion-rate-hits-lowest-level-1973

Another topic that the video touched on, very briefly, was the maternal death rate. It wasn't until I watched the video for the 3rd time that I realized that the mother (and not the baby) had died in the delivery room - and that also says a lot about our society.
America has the highest maternal death rate of ANY developed nation, and the rate is going up. The solution, of course, is more funding from the Federal government, which
could fund programs like California's Maternal Mortality Review Board, which reduced maternal mortality by 50% in its first decade of operation. Sadly, though, increased funding for better maternal health is not a priority for the current administration.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/05/10/maternal-deaths-mothers-mortality-column/595818002/

Music has always been a reflection of our society, frequently to the chagrin of the older generation, but a song like “Lullaby” (in 3 minutes and 45 seconds) can make all of us feel better about our future.